Guess probability of a contagious bioterrorist attack 2-10%/year. Guess probability of causing 1b deaths 5-20%.
The U.S. currently spends $6.4b/year for civilian biosecurity. Guestimate global civilian biosecurity expenditures amount to $10b/year. Guess reduce threat of attack by 50-90%.
|Project||Cost||Real world outcome||Outcome estimates||Economic value in Western terms|
|Prevent bioterorrist attack||$10b/year||50-90% chance save 5-20% of 1b lives in event of 2-10%/year event||Save 50-90% x 5-20% x 1b x 2-10%/years lives||$1t-36t/year|
100 - 4,000