Leverage Factor (average 2006-2010)
Leverage Factor
10,000 - 130,000
OneWorld Health
OneWorld Health is a non-profit pharmaceutical research company that focuses on the diseases of the developing world. Pharmaceutical research is a notoriously expensive and risky venture, and OneWorld health aren't immune from that risk. If they can hit a home run however, something which they have failed to do to date, their impact could be huge.
Their latest product, anti-diarrheals is too early in the development pipeline to assess.
Leverage Factor (2009-2010)
Pharmaceutical development is a multi-year process and OneWorld Health didn't bring any products to market in 2009-2010.
Leverage Factor (2008)
Malaria results in 300m acute infections and 1m deaths per year.
OneWorld Health brought to market synthetic Artemesinin used for treating malaria. Unfortunately, they have been unable to get the cost of production down significantly below that of conventionally produced Artemesinin. As such they have positioned themselves as providing a drug stockpile to buffer world demand, but it isn't clear how much societal value this adds. For back of the envelope caluclation purposes we will consider this a failure rather than a partial success. Failures are to be expected in the pharmacuetical industry, and they need to be factored in to any assessment along with the successes.
| Project | Cost | Real world outcome | Outcome estimates | Economic value in Western terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semi-synthetic artemesinin to treat malaria | $40m | Project at risk of failure for not bringing price down sufficiently; goal is to reduce the price of artemesinin from $2.20/course to something more affordable | Project deemed a failure; would have guessed 2-20% reduction in acute infections and deaths; guess 10 day infection period of extreme pain; capitalize over 20 years; guess had a 30-80% chance of project success | 0 (had 30-80% chance of $1.0-10t) |
Leverage Factor
0 (had 30-80% chance of 25,000 - 250,000)
Leverage Factor (2007)
Pharmaceutical development is a multi-year process and OneWorld Health didn't bring any products to market in 2007.
Leverage Factor (2006)
Visceral leishmaniasis is a neglected disease that effects 500k people/year and is fatal if not treated.
OneWorld Health has developed Paromomycin intramuscular injection for treating visceral leishmaniasis. Total cost of treatment, in Bihar, India, is $40/patient, only 20% of which is the cost of the drug. Unfortunately for OneWorld Health, while Paromomycin was being trialed, another new drug Miltefosin was developed that is administered orally and has a total cost of $100-$150. Miltefosin is not entirely successful however, due to resistance. The best available drug, Ambisome, is unfortunately very expensive. The low cost of Paromycin means it still has a significant impact.
| Project | Cost | Real world outcome | Outcome estimates | Economic value in Western terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paromomycin to treat visceral leishmaniasis | $15m-25m | Reduce cost of treatment from $100-150 down to $40 | Guess will save 25k-100k lives per year and produce economic savings of $50-100 for 200k people from medium development countries per year. Capitalize over 10-20 years at which point other effective treatments might be available. 25k-100k x $2m x 10-20 = $500b-4t. | $500b-4t |
Leverage Factor
20,000 - 250,000
This leverage factor is inline with Cost-effectiveness projections of single and combination therapies for visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India by P. Olliario et al., which reports $2 per year of life lost averted for Paromomycin, however they fail to take into account the ability of some patients to use of more expensive therapies in their cost benefit calculations.