Leverage Factor
Guess probability of a contagious bioterrorist attack 2-10%/year. Guess probability of causing 1b deaths 5-20%.
The U.S. currently spends $6.4b/year for civilian biosecurity. Guestimate global civilian biosecurity expenditures amount to $10b/year. Guess reduce threat of attack by 50-90%.
| Project | Cost | Real world outcome | Outcome estimates | Economic value in Western terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevent bioterorrist attack | $10b/year | 50-90% chance save 5-20% of 1b lives in event of 2-10%/year event | Save 50-90% x 5-20% x 1b x 2-10%/years lives | $1t-36t/year |
Leverage Factor
100 - 4,000