Global Catastrophic Risks
GCR event (1b+ deaths) current annual probability annual probability in 50 years time annual cost to prevent cost / GCR event prevented cost / DALY (assume 1b deaths; 20 time discounted DALYs / life saved)
Artificial intelligence 0.00001 0.2 $4b $20b $1 technology exists x hostile x prob. GCR = 5% x 20% x 0.1% (today) = 100% x 20% x 100% (future); prevention involves raising awareness of researchers / prob. awareness improves situation = $1b / 0.25; raising awareness is cheaper than preventing nuclear war
Nanoplague 0 0.25 $40b $160b $8 replicators gone wild; technology exists x technology accessible x technology mis-used = 50% x 50% x 100%; prevention involves agreement on centralization of labs; similar cost to preventing nuclear war
Asteroid impact 0.0000017 $10m $6t $300 1 in 600,000 year event; detection cost only; NASA spends $4m/year mapping NEO
Bioterrorism 0 0.005 $40b $8t $400 first attacks not catastrophic cause global regulation of technology; prob attack x prob. GCR = 10% x 5%; prevention involves agreement on centralization of labs; similar cost to preventing nuclear war
Nuclear war 0.002 $40b $20t $1,000 prob. war x prob. GCR = 2% x 10%; US spent $8b/year under START treaty
Biowarfare 0 0.005 $100b $20t $1,000 extinction part of MAD doctrine; prob of war x prob. GCR = 1% x 50%; higher cost than preventing nuclear war since harder to police
Plague 0.001 $350b $350t $17,500 prob. plague x prob. GCR = 5% x 2%; influenza only killed 50m in 1918; smallpox might kill 1b but would be bioterrorism/biowarfare; feel antibiotic resistance wouldn't lead to 1b deaths; prevention: vaccine costs x population = $50 x 7b
Super eruption 0.00002 - - -
Massive lava flow 0.000000032 - - - 8 in 250m years
Accelerator black hole 0.000001 - - - Conservative, probably more like 1e-9
Accelerator strangelet disaster 0.000001 - - - Conservative, probably more like 1e-9
Gamma ray burst 0.00000001 - - -
Cosmic rays 0.0000000003 - - -
Extra-terrestrial micro-organisms 0.0000000001 - - -
Comet impact ? - - -
Universe simulation shutdown ? - - -
Brighter sun (runaway greenhouse effect) 0 - - -
Supernova 0 - - -
Alien aggression 0 - - - assume aliens are distant